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Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?

Food Production

This scenario explores the impacts of a failed land reform process amid political upheaval, climate change and currency volatility on the South African food system.

 
 

 

Question

What happens to food production in an unequal and polarised society?

 
 

What if...

land reform does not move fast enough, resulting in land invasions?

Food is examined as...

a product of farming

This scenario is driven by...

land ownership pressures, climate variability and currency volatility

 

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The Scenario

It is 2015 and South African farmers are under pressure. The impacts of a weakening rand are compounded by an uncertain climatic and political future.

Commercial farmers survive through consolidation and investment in infrastructure and biotechnology, but the majority of small-scale farmers depend heavily on government support for their survival. The gap between the two groups grows larger. This inequality and an ineffectual land reform process results in growing frustration.

Rising tensions unleash a series of events, including mass land invasions. The result is increased unemployment and food insecurity. A significant number of white commercial farmers leave South Africa for neighbouring states.

Gradual improvement is seen in farmer support services and the public–private land reform processes start to show results. Retailers increase support to small-scale farmers to secure local food supply.

By 2030, a new class of medium-scale black farmers is emerging, but there is a lag effect because the emerging class of farmers are not yet able to maintain historic levels of agricultural output.